Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.324365 3.147348 4.301020 6.089521 8.894442e+00 1.331437e+01 21.230441
2025-02-09 1.705628 2.680340 4.347352 7.638281 1.463647e+01 3.080785e+01 79.497638
2025-02-16 1.229665 2.168133 4.052338 8.649722 2.179921e+01 6.848041e+01 359.488264
2025-02-23 0.861658 1.656727 3.465566 8.734760 2.855199e+01 1.403019e+02 2173.826963
2025-03-02 0.608311 1.250214 2.862542 8.312955 3.468231e+01 2.804437e+02 29258.186839
2025-03-09 0.483309 1.067736 2.706926 9.313134 5.371515e+01 9.919828e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 0.387707 0.910965 2.527705 10.203101 8.295730e+01 5.095166e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.322638 0.804082 2.439899 11.651060 1.427923e+02 9.395594e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.270373 0.709162 2.331588 13.063405 2.508289e+02 4.325238e+09 NaN
2025-04-06 0.217185 0.587688 2.031585 12.639029 3.385382e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.174289 0.482201 1.728577 11.629575 4.093609e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.150724 0.432008 1.642558 12.604424 7.435839e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.134105 0.401681 1.646594 15.084013 2.074240e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.121607 0.381159 1.692283 18.936422 9.388849e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.106861 0.345567 1.623155 21.092540 4.094573e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.091139 0.299727 1.451929 20.542384 1.157020e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.077096 0.255936 1.261501 18.742630 2.289504e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.069469 0.236687 1.224713 20.954373 1.143093e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.062567 0.217971 1.176676 22.890425 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.057375 0.204996 1.161956 26.381765 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.052593 0.192111 1.137320 29.829394 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.046583 0.171346 1.028470 28.275734 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.040985 0.151011 0.909489 25.298197 NaN NaN NaN